Predictions for the 2025 Academy Awards
The little golden man goes to...
The biggest night in Hollywood is rapidly approaching, with the 97th Academy Awards ceremony broadcast into our homes on Sunday, March 2nd. The past few years have brought ceremonies that have been straight down the line predictable to some of the most unforeseen in history, culminating in the slap heard round the world.
The Oscars have always been an element of my fascination, with the winners being added to a canon of film history, whether or not it is always deserved.1 This year comes on the heels of a few different seismic changes to the Academy establishment. After the “Oscars so White” campaign of the late 2010s, the Academy made real efforts to diversify and multi-nationalize their voting body. The string of victories beginning with Moonlight in 2017 exemplifies the electorate in flux. In that time, winners have varied from as traditional and straight down the middle as possible, such as Green Book and Oppenheimer, to boundary-pushing and revolutionary, none more exemplary of this than the 2020 statuette receiver in Parasite. In addition, 2024 was the year that felt much of the brunt of the concurrent actors and writers strikes from the previous year, with many films rushing to completion or delaying their starts.
This awards season has also been reflective of this, with a French film about a transgender cartel boss coming hot out of the gates until the star’s old2 tweets resurfaced. Another film, whose filmmaker has relentlessly advocated for creative liberty and auteur ownership, had its run destabilized after not one but TWO AI scandals. The most traditional film in contention this year might have predicted the Pope’s death. The current front-runner has a sympathetic perspective on sex workers and would surely scare the pope to death if this pneumonia doesn’t do him in. In all, it has led to one of the least predictable Oscar’s races in recent memory, and it is my job to decipher what will happen this Sunday.
My Predictions
I’m no expert. I haven’t seen all the short films or documentary features, but if not being an expert has kept anyone from holding an opinion, then the world would be a much better place. To hell with that. I’ll go category by category with my official predictions, providing any commentary I see fit as we go.
Below the Line Categories
Short Films
Documentary
Death by Numbers Dir. Kim A. Snyder
I Am Ready, Warden Dir. Smriti Mundhra
Incident Dir. Bill Morrison
Instruments of a Beating Heart Dir. Ema Ryan Yamazaki
The Only Girl in the Orchestra Dir. Molly O'Brien
Animated
Beautiful Men Dir. Nicolas Keppens
In the Shadow of the Cypress Dir. Hossein Molayemi
Magic Candies Dir. Daisuke Nishio
Wander to Wonder Dir. Nina Gantz
Yuck! Dir. Loïc Espuche
Live Action
A Lien Dir. David Cutler-Kreutz & Sam Cutler-Kreutz
Anuja Dir. Adam J. Graves
I’m Not a Robot Dir. Victoria Warmerdam
The Last Ranger Dir. Cindy Lee
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent Dir. Nebojša Slijepčević
Short films have always been a difficult category for me to predict, I've flip-flopped on these choices multiple times in writing this piece. In previous years, animated short has been dominated by Pixar, Live Action acts either as a way to give Oscars to filmmakers who otherwise have not received them or as a predictor to who is up next, and Documentary, similar to both the long form Documentary branch of the awards as a whole, operates outside the confines of most of the other Academy branches. As a result, most of these are little better than a shot in the dark.
Original Song
El Mal - Camille, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Zoe Saldaña written by Camille, Clément Ducol, and Jaques Audiard from Emilia Pérez
The Journey - H.E.R written by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight
Like a Bird - Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada written by Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada from Sing Sing
Mi Camino - Selena Gomez written by Camille and Clément Ducol from Emilia Pérez
Never Too Late - Elton John and Brandi Carlile written by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin from Elton John: Never Too Late
Always one of my least favorite categories, Original Song always feels like a category included solely to add something that isn’t the awards themselves to the broadcast, yet this year they are foregoing these performances in favor of reels to highlight the resilience of Los Angeles after the wildfires. In this case, why even continue to include this category? I’ve chosen El Mal as Zoe Saldaña has been the frontrunner all season and has been the only person to have made it past the tweet scandal with their campaign still in tact, it seems.
Original Score
The Brutalist by Daniel Blumberg
Conclave by Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez by Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked by John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot by Kris Bowers
The most iconic 4 notes since the I-V-vi-IV melody was created, The Brutalist score lived rent-free for weeks after the screening I attended. The 80s remix cemented the score among some of the most iconic, it wins easily here for me.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado for A Different Man
Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini for Emilia Pérez
David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton for Nosferatu
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli for The Substance
Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth for Wicked
Say what you may about the film, the Makeup, Hair Design, Costuming and Special Effects in The Substance were phenomenal. Looking at the fact the film was not acknowledged in the latter two categories, expect it to win here as its Best Picture nod shows it resonated with enough voters to gain significant recognition.
Costume Design
Arianne Phillips for A Complete Unknown
Lisy Christl for Conclave
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman for Gladiator II
Linda Muir for Nosferatu
Paul Tazewell for Wicked
As much as it pains me to guess this is the winner, when Dune part II wasn’t nominated, it felt like Wicked’s win was all but secured. While there are other aspects of the production design that didn’t work for me, the costuming seemed adequate enough. At the end of the day, the will of the theater kids can’t be stopped.
Visual Effects
Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan for Alien: Romulus
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs for Better Man
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer for Dune: Part Two
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould for Wicked
In a category ruled by apes (seriously, 3 of 5 nominees have prominent ape designs), I’ve gone against course and stuck with my guns on the second entry in the allegedly planned Dune trilogy. While the argument can be made that Better Man’s monkey depiction of Robbie Williams is the most impressive take on the monkey-ification of visual effects, I think the monkies cannibalize themselves leaving the blockbuster hit of nearly a year ago (not to mention a sequel to a film which was already rewarded for both production design and visual effects 3 years ago) to go against a sequel/reboot/modernization that adds a bit to the lore of the universe. It’s not an easy choice, but my gut says Dune.
Production Desing
Judy Becker & Patricia Cuccia for The Brutalist
Suzie Davies & Cynthia Sleiter for Conclave
Patrice Vermette & Shane Vieau for Dune: Part Two
Craig Lathrop & Beatrice Brentnerová for Nosferatu
Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales for Wicked
For the same reason as I selected them above, I’ve avoided rewarding the team behind Dune again although I’d imagine they are the leader in the clubhouse. The remainder of the field is in tough contention for MOST production design, but I’ve gone with Wicked. Yet again, the most design will hold out and the theater kids will have their way.
Best Sound
Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco for A Complete Unknown
Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill for Dune: Part Two
Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta for Emilia Pérez
Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis for Wicked
Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts for The Wild Robot
Again, Dune has precedent from the 2022 statuette going to the team behind the film. Dune has also won most of the precursor awards; however, notably not the Cinema Audio Society Award, which awarded A Complete Unknown. While that is a significant award, the voting body is small so I’d imagine Dune winning here.
Film Editing
Sean Baker for Anora
David Jancso for The Brutalist
Nick Emerson for Conclave
Juliette Welfling for Emilia Pérez
Myron Kerstein for Wicked
Sean Baker has a unique opportunity here, nominated for 4 individual Oscars. Never has a single person won 4 Oscars for a single film,3 but Walt Disney won 4 in a single ceremony across multiple films in 1953. Sean Baker is a rare director at his level that still cuts his own films, and I expect this to be recognized along side the trend of awarding Anora throughout the night.
Cinematography
Lol Crawley for The Brutalist
Greig Fraser for Dune: Part Two
Paul Guilhaume for Emilia Pérez
Ed Lachman for Maria
Jarin Blaschke for Nosferatu
Another category that often rewards the biggest cinematography, I expect the a24 machine to continue chugging along in their favorite category. This isn’t to take away from The Brutalist, as I recognize the cinematography is my most memorable of the year, from the moment the statue of liberty first appears on screen to the manhunt at the climax of the film. I just think Anora and Conclave could have unseated some of the candidates, but understand why the nominees were recognized.
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
A highly competitive category, the nominees across this category all have an argument to take home the little man. Aardman always has a presence at the Oscars (and in the hearts of critics), Inside Out 2 saved the box office last summer, Memoirs of a Snail is A Little Life for the animation space, and Flow is the foreign arthouse classic playing to cat lovers everywhere. While all of these films have something that lends themselves to being awarded, The Wild Robot threads the needle in my opinion between cultural hit and artistic achievement, á la the Spider-verse films of years past. I expect that to be enough to take it home.
Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
5 incredibly important films about conflict and tragedy throughout the world, Documentary Feature is again a difficult category to predict. No Other Land, which documents Israeli destruction and occupation of the West Bank, seems to be the most timely and important film of the collection. Not to discount any of the other entries, but I expect No Other Land to take it home.
International Feature Film
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
Another category that seemed locked up until the aforementioned tweet scandal, International Feature has gone to films recognized in Best Picture each of the last 7 years. This narrows the group down to I’m Still Here and Emilia Pérez, which to me indicates the former’s lead in the race. All this being said, the narrative surrounding the government influence on The Seed of the Sacred Fig would be the most likely to play spoiler.
Original Screenplay
Anora by Sean Baker
The Brutalist by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance by Coralie Fargeat
4 really interesting, unique, and, for a lack of a better word, original screenplays are truly in contention for the award. I’m not totally sure how September 5 received a nomination here, not that it is bad but mostly that it seems to be operating on a different level than the other films. Anora does something incredibly unique in its story, creating humorous moments within a heartfelt and empathetic dramatic narrative. Sean Baker’s script establishes numerous identifyable characters throughout, look for it to take home the award on Sunday.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield
Another award that seems to be fairly locked up by following the precursor awards, Conclave seems poised to take home the win Sunday. The script reads as a traditional winner in the category, with the twists and turns of the good ol’ films from the 90s that “Hollywood doesn’t make anymore.”
The Big 5
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov in Anora
Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce in The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande in Wicked
Felicity Jones in The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini in Conclave
Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez
Both supporting races have seemed like no contests throughout awards season. A bit of gamesmanship on the part of the big mouse running Culkin in supporting although he is in a co-lead role in A Real Pain has lead this race to be pretty uncompetitive. Similarly, the only real lead to remain beyond the twitter scandal, as I mentioned earlier in Song, was for Zoe Saldaña’s performance in Emilia Pérez. While neither are my favorite supporting performances of the year (that would be Guy Pierce in the Brutalist and Isabella Rossellini in Conclave), both will be worthy recipients of the tiny man.
Actor in a Lead Role
Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice
Looking at history, Timothée Chalamet would be the obvious choice here. After winning SAG, the predictor of each of the last 14 recipients of the Academy Award, he should be the front-runner to break fellow nominee Adrien Brody’s record for youngest recipient of this award. While Chalamet has a number of indicators pointing in his direction, I think the SAG award comes a little too late in the campaign season due to the LA fires shifting the schedule. Adrien Brody’s performance, while controversial due to the use of AI in replacing vowel sounds in his Hungarian pronunciation, is worthy of taking home the award, which I expect to happen.
Actress in a Lead Role
Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón for Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison for Anora
Demi Moore for The Substance
Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here
Anotehr race that seemed to be indicating a young upset of an established member of the academy, wins at the BAFTAs and the Independent Spirit Awards provided a late surge for Mikey Madison’s incredible performance as the titular Ani in Anora. Again I think this surge is too little, too late, as the Demi Moore train seems not only to be unstoppable but seems to have resonated deeply with a larger swath of the Academy, as many films about showbusiness tend to do. After Moore’s win at the SAG awards, I thing this has been locked up in her favor.
Director
Sean Baker for Anora
Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
James Mangold for A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
Maybe this is biased due to my love of the film, but Baker has also taken home many of the precursor awards, including the Independent Spirit Awards, which lead to his magnificent speech last week. I expect him to get yet another speaking opportunity for Best Director, but would not be surprised to see Corbet or Fargeat take it home as the hot, new director on the block.
Best Picture
Anora
A Complete Unknown
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
As mentioned before, I believe Sean Baker completes his historic night, capping off the 4 trophy run with the big one to end the broadcast.4 Anora topped my list of my favorite films of 2024, so this should come as no surprise that I have chosen it to win here. This choice is even stronger if you are to read the tea leaves that are supporting this choice, it’s haul throughout the awards season has been bountiful. My only concern here is that it may be a divicive film, which with the ranked choice voting employed by the Oscars for the best picture race, favors a down-the-middle crowd pleaser like Conclave. If Conclave were to win, I would not be shocked, just disappointed. It would be another in a long line of crowd pleasing wins á la Green Book and CODA. If anything else were to win, I would love it to be The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, or The Substance. We’ll soon find out.
My Final Ballot
Looking at you, The Artist
by old, I mean two years old. Really whack stuff here.
Bong Joon-ho accepted 4 Oscars for Parasite at the 2020 ceremony but the international feature oscar goes to the country’s governing body. Actually dumb as hell, just as France nominating The Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall last year.
Except that one time, where Soderberg directed and they moved best supporting actor to the end expecting the recently deceased Chadwick Boseman to win, only to be upset by Anthony Hopkins in The Father.